Hamilton 2030 city of 200,000 people

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This is the first time Hamilton has planned for a population of 200,000 within a ten year time frame.

This is an update of the history of ‘Hamilton Population Projections’. In a previous post you can find a history of the Estimated Future Changes in population growth dating back to the 1960s. Below is an update of the graph from that post. Added are the 2018 census count and the 2021-31 Long-Term Plan (LTP) projection. What we can see is a number of past estimates fitting nicely between the actual and 2021-31 projected lines; the 2006-16 LTP (2016 estimation) and 2009-19 LTP (with a 2051 estimation) is pretty close to what is actually happening.

The next graph looks back to the 1950s. What we see here are the lines separating, showing the 2015-25 LTP (with a 2045 estimation) within these lines.

Part of the reason we have a housing crisis can be explained by the fact that population growth was underestimated in the 2012-21 LTP and the District Plan. It is the District Plan that suppressed land supply by reducing land zoned for Residential Intensification from 278ha (10% of the 1960s area) of Hamilton’s  total area down to 2% of the present area (208ha), allowing developers and land owners to play monopoly with the land supply at the expense of people new to the market.

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